A Black Autumn for Italian Economy?

The PMI manufacturing index fell to 51.9 points in July from 52.6 in June, disappointing the expectations of analysts who stood at 52.5 points. And that whole Eurozone is stable at 51.8 points, signaling, however, a strengthening of the recovery phase of failure, which also seemed to glimpse in the first half of the year. The European figure is lower than the expectations of 51.9 points and is the same in June, in turn, the lowest in the past seven months.
The Italian data remains positive, ranking above 50 points - the

Italian economy

threshold of demarcation between contraction and growth of tourism - but the slowdown is yet another indication that our economy would have missed the coupling to the shooting. Over all, this is the lowest level in the last eight months.
Yesterday, three Statistical Institute have painted a rather bleak picture for the Bel Paese. In June, unemployment fell to 12.3% from 12.6% in May, but has reached the record level of 43.7% among young people aged between 15 and 24 years. At the same time, inflation in July fell 0.1%, a clear sign of the crisis of consumption, despite the legendary 80 euro more in payroll.

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As if that were not enough, Istat has launched what could be called a "warning" on growth, supporting the monthly note that the Italian economy would show signs of stagnation, which may also involve the third quarter of the year, while aggravated signs of weakening economic activity. A month ago, the Istat always felt that the Italian GDP in the second quarter could replicate the bad performance in the first three months of 2014, ie swing from -0.1% to + 0.3%, but explaining to expect a more downward variation between the stagnant and declining. If it had confirmed the lowest figure of the fork, Italy would be formally entered into recession, the third since 2008 recession was not even on paper, in practice it would be agony.
And still today, the institute noted yet another decrease of 0.2% (gross of cassintegrati) employment in large enterprises. This is not news, but a symptom that domestic production would not be the head and turned around.

Black Autumn in Italy 

The quote of the slew of negative data could go on, but what matters is that the prospect is quite dark for the next few months, when Italy will have to deal with a multi-billion corrective action, the impact on the economy will be devastating . Whether it's tax increases or cuts in public spending 10-20 billion stolen resources of 2-3 months will have inevitable consequences. Consumption could shrink to alarming levels, dragging them back with the production, while the already battered pil could give rise to a negative sequence and impressive, if you think that we are already in the longest recession ever experienced from Italy second World War.

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Finally, it should be noted that over the months will start to be even less favorable conditions ultra-recovery, which also exist in this stage, because of the zero interest rate policy undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Regardless of what you decide to do Mario Draghi, the rate hike will divert capital into the United States, and this will trigger a rise in yields also in the eurozone, where government bonds will no doubt continue to be issued at very low costs, but not like today. A few billion more in spending for interest on the public debt will reduce the margin of maneuver on the already non-existent public accounts. It will create a downward spiral of budget shortfalls and spending cuts / tax increases which do not come off in the absence of growth. The rest will be in Italian politics, including lack of reforms, shaky majorities and early elections.

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